Showing posts with label NICE. Show all posts
Showing posts with label NICE. Show all posts

Monday, September 01, 2014

Good vibrations (Musings on new research on idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis)

Updated: 27 Dec. 2014 
AND THE BEAT GOES ON
This new blog is to relate what I discovered
  1. When generous friends wrote Alberta's then Health Minister, Fred Horne asking for Esbriet to be funded for idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF), including Minister Horne's response when I contacted him directly. 
  2. Interesting tidbits from additional medical research on IPF.
  3. How physicians vary in their approach to patients with IPF.
*** Plus - and it's a huge plus - a surprising update in early December (see blog's new ending). 

BACKGROUND
In 2013 my spouse was diagnosed with IPF, a deadly disease with no known cure and a median life expectancy after diagnosis of ~3 years.

Besides the diagnosis, it was a shock to learn that the one known treatment at the time (pirfenidone / Esbriet) was approved for use by Health Canada, but not funded by provincial governments.

I subsequently read many scientific papers on the issue and wrote 4 blogs that examined what it's like to get an IPF diagnosis and why Esbriet is covered by public funding in the UK but not Canada. In brief, reasons include
  • The Canadian Drug Expert Committee (CDEC), under the auspices of CADTH, decided that Canada should not fund Esbriet (18 April, 2013). 
  • The clinical trial results at the time were equivocal and CDEC opted for seeing the glass half empty, no doubt partly because Esbriet is expensive ($40,000 - $50,000/yr). Provinces would prefer not to pay for a drug that slows, but does not cure IPF, a disease affecting mainly the elderly.
  • To access the 4 earlier blogs on IPF: 'While my guitar gently weeps' (Musings on idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis).
Although we are fortunate to have great health insurance, it did not cover a drug as expensive as Esbriet. We understand why our drug maximum is $2000/yr, otherwise the plan would be unsustainable.

HOW GOVERNMENT RESPONDS 
Many friends kindly wrote the Alberta government, usually the Health Minister, Premier, or their MLA, using a variation of the Canadian Pulmonary Fibrosis Foundations' provincial advocacy packages. Regardless of how personalized they made their appeals - including that they knew the UK but not Canada funded Esbriet - in return all, including me, received what amounted to a government form letter, which totally ignored the content of our letters.

In return I wrote Minister Horne and asked him to cut the crap and reply to 3 simple questions.

To his credit, Fred Horne replied to my direct questionsIf I interpret Minister Horne's reply correctly:
  1. Unless CDEC recommends Esbriet funding, Alberta won't fund it.
  2. Alberta's expert committee (ECDET) accepts (rubber stamps) CDEC's decisions.
  3. Forget about Alberta's Short Term Exceptional Drug Therapy (STEDT), unless a drug is approved for public funding by CDEC OR Canada's provinces negotiate what they deem a reasonable cost for Esbriet.
Alberta Health's replies were as expected. I just wish the government would be more transparent and upfront, instead of giving citizens the hope that maybe you can get your expensive drug, with unknown or iffy efficacy, under special funding. 

Maybe you can, but only if you are a cute child with a rare disease or if your disease is more common (e,g., cancer), thereby involving more voters. Cynicism or reality? You judge. 

WHAT RESEARCH SAYS
Since I wrote the prior blogs, new research has emerged on Esbriet's value in treating IPF, notably,
Accordingly, CADTH is looking at another submission on pirfenidone (Esbriet) and seeks input. 

In the meantime, Esbriet's maker, Intermune was bought by Big Pharma's Roche for $8.3 billion, likely in the hope that the U.S. FDA will approve Esbriet for use in the USA. Effects of the takeover on Esbriet's public funding in Canada remain to be seen.

A TALE OF TWO PHYSICIANS 
My spouse's initial lung specialist (pulmonologist / respirologist) is a physician with much experience, who gave Peter hope that he could get funding for Esbriet, which might significantly help, although not cure, his IPF. The doc patiently spent much time explaining IPF and its possible clinical courses.

He put us in touch with Esbriet's maker to investigate if our insurance would pay. He submitted Peter's name to Alberta's Short Term Exceptional Drug Therapy program (STEDT).

But he soon moved his practice outside our city to what is often called a 'bedroom community'. Although relatively close, driving is a challenge and I could not see travelling there for continuing care. 

Unfortunately, we quickly learned that Esbriet funding was a no-go (as explained above in correspondence with Fred Horne). The original respirologist was hopeful that it would eventually be funded, especially if enough people drew the Minister's attention to the issue of IPF and Esbriet / pirfenidone. Thus, we asked friends to write the Health Minister.

In a pulmonary care exercise program with an Edmonton primary care network, we were told that IPF could deteriorate quickly at any time (acute exacerbation), and we needed a physician to manage it. We opted for a respirologist who was younger and therefore the wait time to see her was less and was affiliated with the University of Alberta Hospital, the facility closest to us.

Her approach was caring but more or less 'all business' and straight forward.
  • She reassured Peter not to worry about no Esbriet funding. The drug is not a cure for IPF and has significant side effects. 
  • Her approach was, Let's take a few key tests (lung function, echocardiogram, CT scan, 6 minute walking test, review earlier sleep apnea test results) so that she could assess his current medical condition. 
  • Then she would discuss where he was at and treatment options.
We appreciated this approach: Let's assess the current state of the disease. What can we do, if anything?

LEARNING POINTS
Some of the key things we've learned:

1. Public advocacy programs for government funding of expensive drugs to treat incurable diseases are worthwhile but work better under certain circumstances.
  • Many voters are mobilized to advocate the cause. 
  • Helps, but does not guarantee success, if
    • Celebrities participate
    • Disease is common
    • Victims pull at heart strings 
2. Government funding of drugs is shrouded in smoke and mirrors. 
  • Health Canada approval does not equal provincial funding.
  • Governments seem content to let advocates 'piss in the wind' and only fess up to reality when pressed.
  • Provincial exceptional drug therapy programs to fund high cost drugs for rare conditions do not apply to drugs unapproved for funding by CADTH's CDEC. [Except perhaps for children with heart-wrenching diseases like this little girl.]
3. Lung specialists vary in their approaches to dealing with patients with life-threatening, incurable diseases.
  • One approach does not fit all because communication involves a communicator (Dr.) and a recipient (patient), and recipients vary greatly in their ability to accept harsh facts. 
  • In our case a reality-based approach is okay. 
4. Evidence-based medicine is highly touted and used to denigrate or justify many treatments. But often the evidence is not there or is conflicting or flawed or tainted by private interest and politics. 
  • Canada's CDEC clearly puts cost-effectiveness first. No doubt cash-strapped provinces prefer this. 
  • Otherwise, why would the UK's NICE committee recommend funding Esbriet to treat IPF, and Canada's CDEC recommend the opposite, based on the same evidence? 
    • For the record, NICE's 64-page report is transparent and discusses all issues in detail. CDEC's report is 5 pages. 
    • UK experts noted that it was unlikely that clinical trials for IPF treatments can ever have enough statistical power to detect a difference in mortality. They recognized this limitation.
      • Yet new studies show Esbriet reduced the relative risk of death or disease progression by 43% compared with placebo.
    • Canada's experts chose to ignore statistical power.
      • Statistical power: Ability of a study to detect a real difference, if one exists. Power is affected by how big the difference is and sample size. If a difference is big, it's easier to detect. And large sample sizes make a real difference easier to detect. 
5. Autopsies show that IPF coexists with many serious conditions, making diagnosis and treatment options difficult. As an example, 
  • In discussing why spouse's lung biopsy showed evidence of pulmonary hemorrhage, not one specialist could explain it. 
  • Seems medicine remains both a science and an art. 
UPDATE
Miracle of miracles, early in Dec. 2014 we learned that the Alberta government would fund Esbriet under the STEDT program. For this we thank Peter's initial respirologist, Dr. Lyle Melenka. See
FOR FUN
As Peter and I deal with a diagnosis of an incurable disease, idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis, we focus on the glass half full. Every day, every month, every year is a blessing.

Which brings me to an old but fabulous Beach Boys ditty.
Further Reading
As always, comment are welcome.

Monday, November 18, 2013

While my guitar gently weeps (Musings on idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis)

Updated: 3 Dec. 2013
This is the fourth of an ongoing series about idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) and the refusal of Canadian provinces to fund the only known effective drug to treat it, pirfenidone (Esbriet).

This blogs title comes from a song that George Harrison wrote for the Beatles in 1968.

As noted in the prior blog, I'll try to explain why Canada and the UK made diametrically opposed decisions based on the same data.

To recap, the Canadian Drug Expert Committee (CDEC), under the auspices of CADTH, decided that Canada should not fund Esbriet (18 April, 2013). 

But in a report also published in April, 2013 the UK's National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) recommended public funding of Esbriet

NICE assessed that Esbriet provided a modest but significant improvement in IPF and "recommended pirfenidone because the benefit to patients justifies the cost."

NICE also recommended pirfenidone be discontinued if there is evidence of disease progression (a decline in per cent predicted FVC of 10% or more within any 12 months). So if Esbriet was shown not to work for an individual, it would not be funded for that person. 

The NICE Report is 64 pages and discusses the evidence for and against Esbriet in detail using the principles of evidence-based medicine. NICE also gives supplementary information. See Further Reading below.

In contrast, CDEC presents a 5-page summary of why they said no.

Judge for yourselves which review is more credible. Perhaps unfair, but NICE is more transparent. With CDEC are we just supposed to accept that they know best, accept the evidence and conclusions in the summary, and not worry about explicit details of their in-depth thinking?

This blog will focus on two key issues: 
1. Efficacy - contradictory studies 
2. Cost - contradictory interpretations 

Like each one of us, I interpret findings through the filter of my education, background, and biases. See original reports to assess for yourself. 

I've chosen selective data to minimize info overload and eyes glazing over. Although findings are simplified, I’ve tried to retain their essence. 'Panel' refers to either CDEC or NICE's expert committees.  

EXECUTIVE VERSION
For those who prefer the bottom line as the first line, my thesis is that Canada’s experts put cost first and chose to see the cup as half empty, whereas UK’s experts put patients first and saw the cup as half full. 

Who decided and how?
The UK NICE process is provided with specific details of who, what, how, and when. 

NICE assessed multiple sources of information and opinionincluding clinical specialists, systematic review of scientific studies on pirfenidone, governments, professional medical and nursing associations, representatives designated by patient groups, and the manufacturer of pirfenidone. 

Canada's CDEC used its Common Drug Review processInformation sources included a systematic review of the clinical trials on pirfenidone, a critique of the manufacturers pharmacoeconomic evaluation, information submitted by patient groups on issues important to them, and the opinions of CDEC members

Criteria used to decide
Both groups based decisions on three main criteria:
  1. Efficacy (inc. FVC, quality of life and mortality rates)
  2. Cost and cost effectiveness
  3. Safety and tolerability
Readers are directed to the original reports for Esbriet's safety and tolerability. Adverse side effects exist but are not serious enough to contraindicate using the drug to treat IPF, although long term effects will need to be monitored.

1. EFFICACY (Does Esbriet work?)
In medicine, efficacy means clinical effectiveness. Does a drug produce a measurable effect that is meaningful and beneficial to patients? 

To measure the effectiveness of Esbriet, the panels looked at the same two RCTs* of adults with mild-to-moderate IPF in 72-week, double-blind, multicentre trials with similar protocols: 

CAPACITY-2  (PIPF-004 in UK)
CAPACITY-1 (PIPF-006 in UK) 
*RCT The randomized clinical trial (RCT) is the gold standard of medical research. Similar individuals are randomly assigned to a treatment group (who take the drug) and a control group (who take a placebo). Double blind means that patients and researchers do not know who is in which group. Then, if there is a difference (patients on the drug improve more than those on placebo), it is more likely to be real. 
The primary outcome in both studies was the change in the percentage of predicted FVC* from baseline to week 72. 
*FVC. Forced vital capacity (FVC) is the volume of air that can forcibly be blown out after a deep breath in and is universally acknowledged as a reliable measure of lung function. A decline in FVC indicates disease progression. A10% decline within 6-12 months is associated with a significant increase in mortality.
In one study (CAPACITY-2) there was a statistically significant* improvement in the rate of decline in per cent predicted FVC with pirfenidone compared with the placebo (4.4% difference), but not the other study (0.6% difference).  
* Statistically significant. A 'statistically significant difference' means the results are unlikely to be due to chance and are more likely to be real. 
Neither Canadian nor UK assessors could explain why the results of the trials were contradictory.

A pooled analysis (possible because the protocols and methodology in both studies were similar), showed a statistically significant improvement in the rate of decline in lung function (per cent predicted FVC) with pirfenidone compared with placebo of 2.5%.

In other words, if data from both studies were analysed as if in one large study, the results are statistically significant (unlikely to be due to chance) and favour Esbriet, as does the one clinical trial. 

Canada v UK #1 (Efficacy and FVC)
Canada's experts noted that, if the 2 studies were contradictory, pooled results must be regarded as ‘exploratory’, i.e., not as valid.  

In contrast, UK experts noted the near-identical design of both studies and agreed that analysing pooled data, although exploratory, was reasonable. 

They concluded that the trials provided evidence that was adequate for assessing the clinical effectiveness of Esbriet. In one study and using pooled data, the drug showed a modest but significant improvement over a short duration (72 weeks).

Canada v UK #2 (Efficacy and Mortality)
Both studies showed no statistically significant difference in IPF-related deaths. 

However, a pooled analysis of IPF-related mortality suggested that pirfenidone was associated with a statistically significantly higher probability of survival compared with placebo.

Canada's experts noted that, in both studies, Esbriet showed no difference in prolonging life. Results of pooled data were invalid. Hence, there was insufficient evidence to determine if Esbriet prolonged life. 

In contrast, UK experts noted that it was unlikely that clinical trials for IPF treatments can ever have enough statistical power* to detect a difference in mortality. Because of the relatively small number of IPF patients in the studies, there aren't enough patients dying over the short duration of the two clinical trials (only 72 weeks) to detect a difference.

UK experts recognized this limitation as one that would probably always exist in clinical trials of drugs to treat IPF. Although a possible survival benefit was uncertain, the UK decided this was the only evidence available for decision-making. 

Canada's experts chose to dismiss the evidence, apparently ignoring the issue of statistical power.
* Statistical power: Ability of a study to detect a real difference, if one exists. Power is affected by how big the difference is and sample size. If a difference is big, it's easier to detect. And large sample sizes make a real difference easier to detect. 
Canada v UK #3 (Efficacy and Quality of Life)
Here the two panels agreed. The studies showed insufficient evidence that pirfenidone provides clinical benefit for quality of life. Quality of life was measured with a 50-item questionnaire that measures distress due to respiratory symptoms, mobility and physical activity, and the psychosocial impact of the disease. 

Both panels found that in the studies Esbriet did not affect related health indicators such as dyspnea (shortness of breath), respiratory-related hospitalisation, need for supplementary oxygen, etc.

2. COST AND COST-EFFECTIVENESS
In both Canadian and UK assessments, the manufacturer submitted a confidential estimate of costs, which were analysed by the panels’ experts.

How medical and public health experts decide cost effectiveness is complex and one of life’s great mysteries. Voodoo economics is the term that comes to mind. The key terms are QALY, ICER / ICUR. (Stick with me. It won’t be too painful.)

QALY
QALY is a well recognized method that indicates how many extra years of life - of a reasonable quality - a person might gain from treatment. QALYs offer many opportunities for researchers to influence results, including what constitutes a reasonable quality of life. NICE explained its QALY calculation.

ICER / ICUR
ICER: The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio is the ratio between the difference in costs and the difference in benefits of two interventions per QALY. 

ICUR: Incremental cost-utility ratio is similar to ICER and is calculated as follows (where A & B are interventions, treatments, drugs, etc.):

Cost of A – Cost of  B
---------------------------------------------------------------
No. of QALYs produced by A –those produced by B

Canada vs UK #4
CDEC says the manufacturer reported that pirfenidone compared with placebo is associated with an ICUR of $143,617 per QALY. They found faults with the manufacturer’s cost analysis and thought true costs would be higher.

In contrast, the UK calculated its ICER by comparing Ebriet NOT to placebo but to ‘best supportive care’. The manufacturer's probabilistic ICER was £24,000 ($40,349 CDN) per QALY gained, which was less than the UK’s Evidence Review Group's assessment but ‘an acceptable cost-effectiveness estimate on which to begin to explore further considerations’.

So….assuming ICER and ICUR are the same, Canada’s cost effectiveness model concludes Esbriet is more than 3 times the cost of the UK’s. Huh?

Did Canada’s ICUR compare Esbriet to placebo but not consider actual treatment costs that IPF patients would incur if not on the drug?

Did Esbriet's manufacturer give different cost estimates to Canada vs the UK?

PERSPECTIVE on COSTS
Cost-effectiveness thresholds per QALY vary from country to country:
  • UK: £20,000 - £30,000 (NICE)
  • USA: $50,000 
  • Australia: $52,400 
  • Canada: $20,000 - $100,000 
Are these thresholds appropriate? Who knows?

BOTTOM LINE
CANADA
Canada's experts judged the data on Esbriet’s efficacy and costs to be inconsistent, untrustworthy, and insufficient, or as Brit football fans might say about an opposing club, ‘They’re shite, total shite!’ 

Yet CDEC allowed that, although individual patients may benefit from pirfenidone, they were unable to determine the clinical criteria that would accurately identify these patients in clinical practice. 

Can’t identify who may benefit? Then no one gets it. 

CDEC took the approach that any evidence that supported Esbriet was iffy. They decided to interpret all study results as the cup half empty. One can only wonder why.

UK
NICE’s approach was the cup is half full. UK experts accepted the positive RCT results of the one study and the pooled study results of both. They acknowledged that, because of small numbers of patients with IPF on Esbriet, it was unlikely that studies could ever show a different in mortality rates. They found Esbriet to be cost effective compared to best supportive care and their threshold for QALY costs. 

Can’t identify who may benefit? Then stop funding Esbreit for a patient who shows a significant decline in lung function over 12 months. 

So what does all this mean? 

To me, it's similar to Canada's blood experts in the 1980s deciding to use stocks of FVIII concentrate for hemophiliacs because they were probably all infected, which turned out not to be true. And what a pompous, cold-hearted decision to make with the lives of others. 

It’s also analogous to Canada’s blood experts deciding that surrogate tests implemented in the USA for non-A, non-B hepatitis (now hepatitis C) were not scientific enough for them. Inadequate sensitivity and specificity to use the lingo of diagnostic tests. 

In retrospect these expert judgements were huge miscalculations and cost the lives of many Canadians and suffering to thousands of others.

Yes, I know you cannot compare Canada's so-called 'tainted blood tragedy' to its decision not to fund IPF's only known treatment, Esbriet. But some aspects are similar. 

Canada’s blood experts put cost first then. And I suspect that CDEC has put costs first in the case of Esbriet to treat IPF. Its committee members would never admit it, even to themselves. But influence is subtle. Today, cost saving in Canada's health system is the pervasive culture. CDEC's decision no doubt pleases provincial governments. 

In contrast UK experts decided to put patients first. The Esbriet studies with all their limitations - especially because of the short 72 week duration and not enough patient numbers and time to show if Esbriet prolongs life - still show the drug provides a modest and real improvement. 

Some might call that balancing cost with patient-centred care, a principle that Canada’s medical community gives lip service to, but seldom implements. 

FOR FUN
'While My Guitar Gently Weeps' epitomizes how I feel about Canada’s decision not to fund Esbriet. The CDEC decision revives memories of earlier cost-based decisions, lacks compassion, and I suspect lets an inflated sense of scientific superiority blind our experts to the big picture. 

For interest, Harrison song was ranked #7 on Rolling Stone's list of the 100 Greatest Guitar Songs of All Time, and #10 on their list of The Beatles 100 Greatest Songs.
I look at the world and I notice it's turning
While my guitar gently weeps.
With every mistake we must surely be learning
Still my guitar gently weeps.
FURTHER READING

NICE Resources
As always, comments are most welcome.